November 3-7, 2025
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Your Guide to the Housing & Mortgage Markets
ONGOING FALL-OUT FROM THE FED, PLUS THE SUPREME COURT ON WEDNESDAY.
The Federal Reserve cut short-term rates by 0.25% last week, as expected. However, Fed Chair Powell indicated in his post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December is not a "foregone conclusion." Bond prices plummeted on this news, causing mortgage rates to go up. Mortgage rates are tied to the mortgage bonds that trade in the bond market. Bonds rallied throughout the summer and early fall, driving mortgage rates down by 0.85% since January of this year, according to Freddie Mac data. Now that a December rate cut may be off the table, bond investors have been unwinding their bets. This is causing mortgage pricing to get worse.
As for this week's news, economic data continues to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is now the second-longest in history. If it continues past Tuesday, it will break the previous record of 34 days that was set during the first Trump administration. The always-important monthly jobs report would normally come out on Friday, but this report, along with other economic data, will be delayed due to the shutdown. In other news, the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on the legality of President Trump's tariffs this Wednesday. Also, Tuesday is an election day with several important offices up for grabs across the country. These items may trigger a market reaction. In the meantime, mortgage pricing may continue to get worse due to ongoing fallout from the Fed.
THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR.
Here are the economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 3 Nov | S&P Mfg. PMI - final | Oct | 52.0 | - | |
| Mon 3 Nov | ISM Mfg. PMI | Oct | 49.1 | 49.5 | |
| Mon 3 Nov | *Construction Spending | Sep | -$85B | - | |
| Tue 4 Nov | *Factory Orders | Sep | - | - | |
| Tue 4 Nov | *JOLTS Job Openings | Sep | 7.227M | - | |
| Wed 5 Nov | ADP Employment | Oct | -32k | 25k | |
| Wed 5 Nov | S&P Services PMI - final | Oct | 54.2 | - | |
| Wed 5 Nov | ISM Services PMI | Oct | 50.0 | 50.7 | |
| Thu 6 Nov | *Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Nov 1 | NA | - | |
| Fri 7 Nov | *Non-Farm Payrolls | Oct | - | - | |
| Fri 7 Nov | *Unemployment Rate | Oct | - | - | |
| Fri 7 Nov | *Average Earnings | Oct | - | - | |
| Fri 7 Nov | U of Mich Consumer Sent - prelim | Nov | 55.0 | 53.0 |
*Data subject to delay due to government shutdown.
That's how long the longest government shutdown lasted from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019. The current shutdown will surpass this record on Wednesday.
Source: Momentifi