June 9-13, 2025
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Your Guide to the Housing & Mortgage Markets
BOND SUPPLY, TRADE HEADLINES, AND CPI CONSUMER INFLATION REPORT.
The market's attention this week is likely to be focused on the May CPI consumer inflation report, due for release on Wednesday. If the numbers come out lower than expected, bond prices may rally, and mortgage pricing may improve. If that doesn't happen, the sell-off in the bond market may continue because two other risk events are at play.
First, the "big, beautiful bill" that passed the House is likely to increase the budget deficit and the national debt, which is what triggered the most recent sell-off in bond prices. More government debt means more bond supply, which leads to higher bond yields and interest rates. It will be interesting to see what progress or changes occur as the bill travels through the Senate. The other set of headlines to watch this week is whether any progress will be made on US-China trade talks. Mortgage pricing may be volatile this week as the market digests these headlines and Wednesday's CPI consumer inflation report.
THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR.
Here are the economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11 Jun | Core CPI month-over-month | May | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Wed 11 Jun | Core CPI year-over-year | May | 2.8% | 2.9% | |
| Wed 11 Jun | CPI month-over-month | May | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Wed 11 Jun | CPI year-over-year | May | 2.3% | 2.5% | |
| The 12 Jun | PPI month-over-month | May | -0.5% | 0.2% | |
| Thu 12 Jun | PPI year-over-year | May | 2.4% | 2.6% | |
| Thu 12 Jun | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Jun 7 | 247k | 240k | |
| Fri 13 Jun | U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment | June | 50.8 | 53.8 |
That's the current Core CPI inflation rate. May numbers come out on Wednesday.
Source: Momentifi