June 16-20, 2025
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Your Guide to the Housing & Mortgage Markets
THE FED ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A MID-WEEK HOLIDAY.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week to issue its monetary policy statement and interest rate decision on Wednesday. It's widely expected that the Fed won't make any changes to short-term interest rates at this time. However, the market will be closely watching the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference for any insight regarding the Fed's future plans. US stock and bond markets are closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Ahead of that, the economic calendar is packed with data, including the Retail Sales report on Tuesday and the Housing Starts report on Wednesday. The market will also be closely watching developments in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, oil prices, and tariff headlines. So far, mortgage bonds are opening the week in negative territory, and mortgage pricing is set to worsen.
THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR.
Here are the economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 16 Jun | NY Fed Mfg. Index | Jun | -9.2 | -5.5 | -16.0 |
| Tue 17 Jun | Retail Sales | May | 0.1% | -0.6% | |
| Tue 17 Jun | Import Prices | May | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
| Tue 17 Jun | Industrial Production | May | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
| Tue 17 Jun | Capacity Utilization | May | 77.7% | 77.7% | |
| Tue 17 Jun | Business Inventories | April | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Wed 18 Jun | Housing Starts | May | 1.361M | 1.36M | |
| Wed 18 Jun | Building Permits | May | 1.412M | 1.43M | |
| Wed 18 Jun | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Jun 14 | 248k | 245k | |
| Wed 18 Jun | Fed Funds Target Rate | - | 4.25-4.5% | 4.25-4.5% |
That's the current annual pace of new housing units being built. May numbers come out on Wednesday
Source: Momentifi