March 24-28, 2025

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Your Guide to the Housing & Mortgage Markets

TOP ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT MORTGAGE RATES THIS WEEK

TARIFF HEADLINES PLUS THE FED-FAVORITE PCE INFLATION REPORT ON FRIDAY.

Stocks, bond yields, and mortgage rates are set to open higher this week as financial markets digest the latest tariff headlines. It now seems that the tariffs scheduled to kick in next week will have a narrower focus than initially anticipated. Negotiations are ongoing and tariff headlines this week could drive investor sentiment. Meanwhile, February's PCE inflation report is scheduled for release on Friday. PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, and this could also trigger a market reaction. Finally, a large supply of month-end Treasuries will hit the bond market this week and impact supply-demand dynamics. Mortgage pricing may be volatile as financial markets react to these items.

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR.

Here are the economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:

Date	Report	Period	Prior	Est.
Mon 24 Mar	S&P Mfg. PMI	Mar	51.6	51.8
Mon 24 Mar	S&P Services PMI	Mar	49.7	50.8
Tue 25 Mar	Consumer Confidence	Mar	98.3	94.0
Tue 25 Mar	New Home Sales	Feb	657k	680k
Wed 26 Mar	Durable Goods	Feb	3.1%	-1.0%
Thu 27 Mar	GDP final	Q4 2024	3.1%	2.3%
Thu 27 Mar	Core PCE Prices	Q4 2024	2.2%	2.7%
Thu 27 Mar	PCE Prices	Q4 2024	1.5%	-
Thu 27 Mar	Initial Jobless Claims	Week ending Mar 22	223k	225k
Thu 27 Mar	Pending Home Sales Change	Feb	-4.6%	1.5%
Fri 28 Mar	Personal Income	Feb	0.9%	0.4%
Fri 28 Mar	Core PCE month-over-month	Feb	0.3%	0.3%
Fri 28 Mar	Core PCE year-over-year	Feb	2.6%	2.7%
Fri 28 Mar	PCE month-over-month	Feb	0.3%	0.3%
Fri 28 Mar	PCE year-over-year	Feb	2.5%	2.5%
Fri 28 Mar	U of Mich. Consumer Sent.	Mar	64.7	57.9

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

2.6%

That's the current year-over-year Core PCE inflation rate. February numbers come out on Friday.

Source: Momentifi