Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Thursday, November 20, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds continue to be range-bound, and stocks are set to open sharply higher as the AI trade is back in vogue today. Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday after the closing bell and an upgraded outlook for Q4. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's late October meeting revealed, "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year." This significantly diminishes the odds of a December rate cut.
On today's economic calendar, the much-delayed and now stale September jobs report came out, showing a jump in job creation from the prior month. The Department of Labor said it would be able to issue an October jobs report because the data, “is not able to be retroactively collected.” Meanwhile, the December jobs report will be released on December 16, which is after the Fed's meeting on December 9-10. December rate cut odds are currently at 28%, according to CME FedWatch, down from nearly 100% a month ago. This change in market expectations is a significant reason why mortgage pricing has worsened since the Fed cut rates in October.
What should you do about it?
Lock your rate to be safe.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 17 Nov | NY Fed (Empire State) Mfg. Index | Nov | 10.7 | 6.0 | 18.7 |
| Tue 18 Nov | *Import Prices | Oct | - | - | N/A |
| Tue 18 Nov | *Industrial Production | Oct | - | - | N/A |
| Tue 18 Nov | *Capacity Utilization | Oct | - | - | N/A |
| Tue 18 Nov | *Factory Orders (delayed) | Aug | -1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Wed 19 Nov | *Housing Starts | Oct | - | - | N/A |
| Wed 19 Nov | *Building Permits | Oct | - | - | N/A |
| Wed 19 Nov | US Trade Deficit | Aug | -$78.2 | -$61B | -$59.6B |
| Wed 19 Nov | FOMC Minutes from the Oct meeting | - | - | - | - |
| Thu 20 Nov | *Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Nov 15 | NA | 225k | 220k |
| Thu 20 Nov | Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -12.8 | -3.1 | -1.7% |
| Thu 20 Nov | *Non-Farm Payrolls | Sep | 22k | 50k | 119k |
| Thu 20 Nov | *Unemployment Rate | Sep | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| Thu 20 Nov | *Average Earnings | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thu 20 Nov | Existing Home Sales | Oct | 4.06M | 4.08M | |
| Fri 21 Nov | S&P Services PMI | Nov | 55.2 | 54.8 | |
| Fri 21 Nov | S&P Mfg. PMI | Nov | 52.2 | 52.0 | |
| Fri 21 Nov | U of Mich Consumer Sent. | Nov | 53.6 | 50.5 |
*Data may be delayed or unavailable due to the government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12.