Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Wednesday, September 17, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds opened lower this morning, and it appears they may be testing their 30-day moving average. The August Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers both came out weaker than market expectations, indicating a slowdown in new construction. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning that refinance applications surged last week to their highest level since early 2022. Turning to the Federal Reserve, the Fed's interest rate decision and monetary policy statement are scheduled for release this afternoon. The Fed is widely expected to cut short-term rates by 0.25%, but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference and the Fed's "dot plot" for indications about the future direction of interest rates.
What should you do about it?
Lock your rate to be safe.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 15 Sep | NY Fed Mfg. Index | Sep | 11.9 | 5.0 | -8.7 |
| Tue 16 Sep | Retail Sales | Aug | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Tue 16 Sep | Import Prices | Aug | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Tue 16 Sep | Industrial Production | Aug | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tue 16 Sep | Capacity Utilization | Aug | 77.5% | 77.4% | 77.4% |
| Tue 16 Sep | Business Inventories | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Wed 17 Sep | Housing Starts | Aug | 1.428M | 1.369M | 1.307M |
| Wed 17 Sep | Building Permits | Aug | 1.354M | 1.37M | 1.312M |
| Wed 17 Sep | Fed Funds Rate | - | 4.25-4.5% | 4.0-4.25% | 4.0-4.25% |
| Thu 18 Sep | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Sep 13 | 263k | 241k | |
| Thu 18 Sep | Philly Fed Business Index | Sep | -0.3 | 2.3 |