Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, November 28, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds are drifting sideways in positive territory above their moving averages as the market reopens after yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday. Meanwhile, the CME futures market is on edge after it had to close overnight due to overheating at a CME data center. The economic calendar is quiet today, and the bond market closes early, so trading volume may be muted. Looking ahead to next week, the normally scheduled monthly jobs report has been pushed back until after the Fed's meeting on Dec. 9-10, due to the government shutdown.
What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can remain in positive territory above their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they break below that level.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 25 Nov | *Retail Sales | Sep | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tue 25 Nov | *PPI month-over-month | Sep | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Tue 25 Nov | *Core PPI month-over-month | Sep | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tue 25 Nov | *Business Inventories | Aug | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tue 25 Nov | Consumer Confidence | Nov | 95.5 | 93.5 | 88.7 |
| Tue 25 Nov | Pending Home Sales Change | Oct | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Wed 26 Nov | *Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Nov 22 | 220k | 227k | 216k |
| Wed 26 Nov | Durable Goods Orders | Sep | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Fri 28 Nov | Chicago PMI | Nov | 43.8 | - |
*Data may be delayed or unavailable due to the government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12.