Monday, November 24, 2025 

What's going on, and why does it matter?
A whopping $211 billion of government bonds are set to hit the market this week, with $69 billion of 2-year Treasury notes set to be auctioned on Monday, $70 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year notes on Tuesday, and $44 billion of 7-year notes on Wednesday. The bond market is closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and only a half-day of trading is scheduled for Friday. As for the economic calendar, delayed economic data from August and September is scheduled to be released this week. The market's reaction to this data may be muted because it is relatively stale at this point. Normally scheduled data for this week, such as the October PCE inflation report, will not be released because the data is nonexistent due to the 43-day government shutdown. In other news, the market will also be watching to see if a peace deal can be reached between Russia and Ukraine before President Trump's Thursday deadline.

What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can remain in positive territory above their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they break below that level.