Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Tuesday, July 1, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds opened higher this morning, but they may give back some of their recent gains to test their 10-day moving average. Today's economic reports include the S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI reports, the JOLTS Job Openings report, and the Construction Spending report, all scheduled for release later this morning. Fed Chair Powell will also speak on a policy panel at a conference in Europe, and his comments may move the markets.
What should you do about it?
Lock your rate to be safe.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 30 Jun | Chicago PMI | Jun | 40.5 | 43.0 | 40.4 |
| Tue 1 Jul | S&P Mfg. PMI final | Jun | 52.0 | 52.0 | 52.9 |
| Tue 1 Jul | ISM Mfg. PMI | Jun | 48.5 | 48.8 | 49.0 |
| Tue 1 Jul | Construction Spending | May | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| Tue 1 Jul | JOLTS Job Openings | May | 7.391M | 7.30M | 7.769M |
| Wed 2 Jul | ADP Employment | Jun | 37k | 85k | |
| Thu 3 Jul | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Jun 28 | 236k | 240k | |
| Thu 3 Jul | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jun | 139k | 110k | |
| Thu 3 Jul | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 4.2% | 4.3% | |
| Thu 3 Jul | Average Earnings | Jun | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Thu 3 Jul | US Trade Deficit | May | -$61.6B | - | |
| Thu 3 Jul | S&P Services PMI final | Jun | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
| Thu 3 Jul | ISM Services PMI | Jun | 49.9 | 50.5 | |
| Thu 3 Jul | Factory Orders | May | -3.7% | 8% |