Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Thursday, October 30, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds are testing their 30-day moving average this morning after yesterday's bond market sell-off in reaction to the Fed. While the Fed cut short-term rates by 0.25% as expected, Fed Chair Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion." Odds of a December rate cut were over 80% in the futures market, and they've since plummeted. Mortgage pricing may continue to be volatile today as investors continue to adjust their expectations. Meanwhile, President Trump concluded his meeting with Chinese President Xi and announced that China will delay curbs on rare earth exports and the US will lower tariffs on Chinese imports for one year. Stocks may cheer this news today.
What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can rebound off their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they make a convincing break below that level.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 Oct | *Durable Goods Orders | Sep | 2.9% | 0.3% | delayed |
| Tue 28 Oct | Consumer Confidence | Oct | 95.6 | 93.5 | 94.6 |
| Wed 29 Oct | *US Trade Deficit | Sep | -$85B | - | delayed |
| Wed 29 Oct | Pending Home Sales Change | Sep | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Wed 29 Oct | Federal Funds Rate | - | 4.25% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Thu 30 Oct | *Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Oct 25 | NA | - | delayed |
| Thu 30 Oct | *GDP initial est. | Q3 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0% | delayed |
| Fri 31 Oct | *Personal Income | Sep | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Fri 31 Oct | *Core PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Fri 31 Oct | *Core PCE year-over-year | Sep | 2.9% | - | |
| Fri 31 Oct | *PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Fri 31 Oct | *PCE year-over-year | Sep | 2.7% | - | |
| Fri 31 Oct | Chicago PMI | Oct | 40.6 | 42.3 |
*Data subject to delay due to government shutdown.