Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, December 5, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds are bouncing between their 10-day and 30-day moving averages as the week draws to a close. The highlight of this week's economic calendar is the Fed-favorite PCE inflation report. Today's report contains the delayed September inflation numbers, and it's scheduled for release at 10 am Eastern time. If it comes out softer than expected, bonds may rally. Otherwise, bonds may continue to struggle or drift sideways.
What should you do about it?
Be prepared for volatility as financial markets react to the PCE inflation report later this morning.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 1 Dec | S&P Mfg. PMI - final | Nov | 52.5 | - | 52.2 |
| Mon 1 Dec | ISM Mfg. PMI | Nov | 48.7 | 49.0 | 48.2 |
| Wed 3 Dec | ADP Employment | Nov | 42k | 10k | -32k |
| Wed 3 Dec | Import Prices month-over-month | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wed 3 Dec | S&P Services PMI final | Nov | 54.8 | - | 54.1 |
| Wed 3 Dec | ISM Services PMI | Nov | 52.4 | 52.1 | 52.6 |
| Thu 4 Dec | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Nov 29 | 216k | 220k | 191k |
| Fri 5 Dec | *Personal Income | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Fri 5 Dec | *Core PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Fri 5 Dec | *PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Fri 5 Dec | *Core PCE year-over-year | Sep | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Fri 5 Dec | *PCE year-over-year | Sep | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Fri 5 Dec | U of Mich Consumer Sent. | Dec | 50.3 | 52.0 | 53.3 |
*Delayed September data is coming out this week, and October data is unavailable due to the government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12.