Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Tuesday, May 13, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Stocks and bonds may rally today after the April CPI consumer inflation report came out weaker than expected. The year-over-year headline number fell to 2.3%, while year-over-year core inflation (minus food and energy) held steady at 2.8%. This is good news for stocks and bonds. However, it's unclear how the market will react, given that stocks already jumped by more than 3% in yesterday's trading session.
What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can rebound from these levels, but be prepared to lock your rate if mortgage bonds resume their downward slide.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 May | Core CPI month-over-month | Apr | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Tue 13 May | Core CPI year-over-year | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Tue 13 May | CPI month-over-month | Apr | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Tue 13 May | CPI year-over-year | Apr | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Thu 15 May | PPI month-over-month | Apr | -0.4% | 0.2% | |
| Thu 15 May | PPI year-over-year | Apr | 2.7% | 2.5% | |
| Thu 15 May | Retail Sales | Apr | 1.4% | 0.0% | |
| Thu 15 May | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending May 10 | 228k | 230k | |
| Thu 15 May | NY Fed Mfg. Index | May | -8.1 | -10.0 | |
| Thu 15 May | Philly Fed Business Index | May | -26.4 | -12.5 | |
| Thu 15 May | Capacity Utilization | April | 77.8% | 77.9% | |
| Thu 15 May | Industrial Production | March | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Fri 16 May | Import Prices | April | 0.1% | -0.4% | |
| Fri 16 May | Housing Starts | April | 1.32M | 1.36M | |
| Fri 16 May | Building Permits | April | 1.48M | 1.45M | |
| Fri 16 May | U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment | May | 52.2 | 53.0 |