Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds opened in negative territory this morning as financial markets get ready to react to the CPI consumer inflation numbers. Headline inflation came out as expected, showing prices rose 0.3% in June and 2.7% year-over-year. However, core inflation (minus food and energy) came out slightly less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the NY Fed (Empire State) Manufacturing Index came out stronger than market expectations. Mortgage bonds are attempting to rebound on this news in early morning trading, but they'll need to contend with their 30-day moving average, which may operate as a technical ceiling of resistance.
What should you do about it?
Lock your rate to be safe.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Jul | Core CPI month-over-month | Jun | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Tue 15 Jul | Core CPI year-over-year | Jun | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Tue 15 Jul | CPI month-over-month | Jun | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Tue 15 Jul | Core CPI year-over-year | Jun | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Tue 15 Jul | NY Fed Mfg. Index | July | -16.0 | -9.0 | 5.5 |
| Wed 16 Jul | PPI month-over-month | Jun | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| Wed 16 Jul | PPI year-over-year | Jun | 2.6% | 2.5% | |
| Wed 16 Jul | Industrial Production | Jun | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| Wed 16 Jul | Capacity Utilization | Jun | 77.4% | 77.4% | |
| Thu 17 Jul | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Jul 12 | 227k | 233k | |
| Thu 17 Jul | Retail Sales | Jun | -0.9% | 0.1% | |
| Thu 17 Jul | Import Prices | Jun | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| Thu 17 Jul | Philly Fed Business Index | July | -4.0% | -1.0% | |
| Thu 17 Jul | Business Inventories | May | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Fri 18 Jul | Housing Starts | Jun | 1.256M | 1.30M | |
| Fri 18 Jul | Building Permits | Jun | 1.393M | 1.39M | |
| Fri 18 Jul | U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment | July | 60.5 | 61.4 |