Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, April 25, 2025
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds are bumping up against their 30-day moving average after rebounding off their 10-day moving average in yesterday's trading session. It appears that a breakout may occur one way or another within the next week as the 10-day and 30-day moving averages converge. On today's economic calendar, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is due out later this morning.
What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can break above their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they fail to do so.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 29 Apr | Consumer Confidence | Apr | 92.9 | 87.7 | |
| Tue 29 Apr | JOLTS Job Openings | Mar | 7.6M | 7.4M | |
| Wed 30 Apr | ADP employment | Apr | 155k | 110k | |
| Wed 30 Apr | GDP | Q1 2025 | 2.4% | 0.4% | |
| Wed 30 Apr | Core PCE month-over-month | Mar | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Wed 30 Apr | Core PCE year-over-year | Mar | 2.8% | 2.5% | |
| Wed 30 Apr | PCE month-over-month | Mar | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| Wed 30 Apr | PCE year-over-year | Mar | 2.5% | 2.2% | |
| Wed 30 Apr | Chicago PMI | Apr | 47.6 | 45.5 | |
| Wed 30 Apr | Pending Home Sales Change | Mar | 2.0% | 1.0% | |
| Thu 1 May | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Apr 26 | 222k | 226k | |
| Thu 1 May | S&P Global Mfg. PMI | Apr | 50.7 | - | |
| Thu 1 May | ISM Mfg. PMI | Apr | 49.0 | 47.8 | |
| Thu 1 May | Construction Spending | Mar | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| Fri 2 May | Non-Farm Payrolls | Apr | 228k | 130k | |
| Fri 2 May | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| Fri 2 May | Average Wages | Apr | 0.3% | 0.3% |