Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, April 26, 2024
What's going on and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds opened flat this morning as the market digests the March PCE consumer inflation report. Year-over-year Core PCE (minus food and energy) came out at 2.8%. This is the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, and it remains elevated vs. the Fed's target of 2%. The market's reaction may be muted because the numbers were mostly in line with market expectations.
What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can rebound toward their 10-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if mortgage bonds resume their downward slide.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 30 Apr | Chicago PMI | Apr | 41.4 | 45.0 | |
| Tue 30 Apr | Consumer Confidence | Apr | 104.7 | 104.0 | |
| Wed 1 May | ADP National Employment | Apr | 184k | 175k | |
| Wed 1 May | Construction Spending | Mar | -0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Wed 1 May | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr | 50.3 | 50.1 | |
| Wed 1 May | JOLTS Job Openings | Mar | 8.756M | 8.670M | |
| Wed 1 May | Fed Funds Target Rate | - | 5.25-5.5% | 5.25-5.5% | |
| Thu 2 May | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Apr 27 | 207k | 212k | |
| Thu 2 May | Factory Orders | Mar | 1.4% | 1.6% | |
| Fri 3 May | Non-Farm Payrolls | Apr | 303k | 245k | |
| Fri 3 May | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 3.8% | 3.8% | |
| Fri 3 May | Average Earnings | Apr | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Fri 3 May | ISM Non-Mfg. PMI | Apr | 51.4 | 52.0 |